2012 Ad spend falls again

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Within the space of 24 hours what looked like a 4.1% overall global growth for 2013 across the market, became 2.5% after Zenith downgraded the performance of every medium, with the exception of Cinema this year.

This has meant this year’s UK growth has been reduced from 2.2% to 1.6%.

The UK saw an increase in press performance during the Olympics, but the months following saw a 10% drop, and it is now believed it will fall to 7.3% this year with only £2.33 billion being spent on newspaper ads.

The national newspaper advertising is set to fall by £127 million and the regional newspapers by £120 million, compared to what was originally forecast in December 2011.

Zenith believe that; “The print market in the UK remains extremely volatile… whilst many had hoped the relatively good performances of the summer months heralded some sort of recovery, this theory was quickly dispersed by the performance in September and October.”

In line with the press, magazine ad spend saw its year-on-year prediction from September fall from a 3.2% decrease to 6.3%.

Unexpectedly, digital has also seen its 2012 growth forecast downgraded, however, the change is very small in comparison, with 2012 decreasing from 11% to 10.5% and 2013, from 9.9% to 9.2%.

Figures are not all entirely negative; outdoor advertising is set to see a 6% growth compared to the 3.9% predicted in September.

As can be expected, in line with the changing ways in which we now consume media, the internet is set to grow by 10.5% this year, largely due to the increasing use of social media and video.

Whilst traditional press is seeing a reduction in spend, budgets are being redistributed across other media.

The fall in digital ad spend could be due to the fact it is a still a relatively new medium, we believe that as the use of the iPads and other tablets becomes increasingly more popular, there will be  growth in ad spend for digital media in 2013.

Further to this, with more people moving away from print media, and instead consuming it online, we agree with Zenith’s forecasting that; “internet advertising to overtake newspapers for the first time in 2013, and then exceed the combined total of newspaper and magazine advertising in 2015.”

UK Advertising Expenditure – Current Prices (£ million)

Year Total Newspapers Magazines TV Radio Cinema Outdoor Internet
2011 11,978 2,519 836 3,290 452 150 753 3,978
2012 12,172 2,335 784 3,258 455 147 798 4,396
2013 12,481 2,276 767 3,225 459 154 800 4,800
2014 12,879 2,259 762 3,257 464 156 806 5,174
2015 13,150 2,259 762 3,290 469 157 815 5,397

UK Advertising Expenditure – Year on Year change at current prices

Year Total Newspapers Magazines TV Radio Cinema Outdoor Internet
12 v 11 1.6 -7.3 -6.3 -1.0 0.7 -2.0 6.0 10.5
13 v 12 2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -1.0 0.9 4.8 0.3 9.2
14 v 13 3.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 7.8
15 v 14 2.1 n/a n/a 1.0 1.1 0.6 1.1 4.3
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